Russland und die Konsequenzen aus dem Ukraine-Krieg

[Schmolle]

Wolltest du mir zustimmen oder etwas besonderes mitteilen?

Zustimmen, dass ich (wir) den Einfluss von Lafontaine nicht einschätzen können und ausdrücken, dass eine Meinung wie seine nichts ist, was nicht schon etliche Male hier diskutiert/aufgebracht worden wäre.

Alns Chlor. Lafontaine hatte gerade dem Spiegel ein Interview gegeben. Das passte in den Kontext, deswegen hab ich es erwähnt.

[C.Adams]

@Menelri

Ja und Ja (etwas).
Im Prinzip gibt es zwei Angriffsschwerpunkte: Avdiivka und Chasiv Yar (Bakhmut Raum).

Bei Chasiv Yar sind die Angriffe in der letzten Woche eher rückläufig. Ukr. Schwächen konnten auch nicht mehr ausgenutzt werden und es gab sogar erste kleine Rückgewinne. Es ist noch zu früh, um festzulegen, ob den Russen die Puste ausgegangen ist oder sie sich nochmal für einen neuen Versuch sammeln.

Bei Avdiivka läuft die Strategie, dass man immer mal wieder etwas Gelände opfert (wenn der Druck zu hoch wird), den Russen aber für jeden Meter massiv Verluste beibringt. Dies ist sehr wahrscheinlich dem Mangel an Munition geschuldet. Allerdings ist auch nicht klar, wo exakt die neuen Verteidigungsstellungen verlaufen, so dass auch nicht ausgeschlossen werden kann, dass man vorgelagertes Gebiet verteidigt (solange sinnvoll und das Verhältnis stimmt) und sich dann wieder ein Stück zurückfallen lässt, bis irgendwann die Linie erreicht ist – beides kann sein.

In allen anderen Fällen testen die Russen mal wieder aus bzw. versuchen es mit kleineren lokalen Angriffen – soweit ohne nennenswerten Erfolg. Festzustellen ist, dass dieses Verhalten massiv angestiegen ist, seitdem das neue Hilfspaket genehmigt wurde (Congress). Es ist momentan nicht möglich den genauen Grund bzw. die Folgen zu identifizieren. Es könnte der Versuch sein, noch was zu erreichen bevor die Hilfen wieder hochgefahren werden. Das macht ganz viel Sinn – allerdings macht es keinen Sinn, wenn man auf der anderen Seite Truppen sammelt für eine bald (wg. jetzt Zeitdruck) bevorstehende Offensive (denn es werden ordentlich Truppen bei diesen Versuchen geopfert). Das ist auch was ich meinte mit „…ohne Rücksicht auf (besonders eigene) Verluste…“. Das macht irgendwie nur Sinn, wenn die rus. Offensive komplett abgeblasen worden ist, aber soviel Optimismus will/sollte man sich noch nicht leisten (noch zu früh).

Noch ein interessantes Interview zu Tschernobyl. Da haben wir auch noch mal Glück gehabt. Da stehen einem wieder die Haare zu Berge.

[Menelri der II.]

Interessantes Gerücht über die Hintergründe der Anklage Ivanovs wegen "Korruption" (Was auch nicht falsch ist, aber das ist in Russland kein Grund für ne Verurteilung idR). Die Informationen kommen von Vladimir Osechkin, daher auf jeden Fall lesenswert, auch wenn es ansonsten praktisch nicht nachvollziehbar ist. Ich packs trotzdem mal hier rein:

PART 1: Wild revelations from Vladimir Osechkin's sources on Timur Ivanov's role in Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion & demise. Arrest of Ivanov is Putin's retribution. Shoigu's fall is likely coming. Prigozhin went nuts and attempted his coup after the MoD continued the constant squeeze on him - first withholding prisoner recruitment, then cutting off his MoD budget, and finally cutting off munitions. Of course Putin had to kill Prigozhin for his attempted coup, BUT- Putin had Patrushev (Security Council) and Bortnikov (FSB) conduct a post-mortem assessment [pun intended] of what really caused Prigozhin to go loco, as he was one of Putin's most trusted & loyal people. Then after Putin had Prigozhin killed for the rebellion, Ivanov, with Shoigu's blessing, sent a significant team (Redut PMC) from the MoD to Africa and started to systemically steal Prigozhin's assets there including gold mines and oil & gas fields. As a result, Patrushev and Bortnikov realized that this was Deputy Defence Minister Ivanov's premeditated plan - to destroy Prigozhin one way or another to steal all his assets - billion of dollars. A plan that was enabled by Shoigu but executed by Ivanov, and hidden from Putin. Putin now blames Ivanov for provoking Prigozhin to betray Putin with the June 23 2023 rebellion and his 'March on Moscow.' The artificial shell famine that Prigozhin complained so much about was traced directly to Timur Ivanov at the MoD.
(Video from May 2023). Shoigu is now also in grave risk of retribution from Putin for what happened to Prigozhin.
So far unclear how he will be dealt with, but quite possible Putin will use his upcoming inauguration and the new 6-year term as an excuse to replace Shoigu as Defence Minister.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...14129436016682

PART 2: Russia's Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was in charge of financing construction projects for the MoD. Osechkin learned that Ivanov & Shoigu's corruption may have influenced the timing of the invasion of Ukraine. But first, how the embezzlement scheme worked - Unfinished Production (НЗП) is a budgetary category of construction projects in the MoD that were not completed for whatever reason. The incomplete construction projects are handed off from the original contractor to someone else, so the total cost to complete is higher. Example: If a new construction (0% complete) is budgeted for $5M, the completion of Unfinished Production construction is more expensive, and the allocated budget is 1.5 to 2 times higher. A 20% complete construction above could have a budget of $8M, making the total $9M (1+8). Ivanov's scheme, in which of course Defence Minister Shoigu himself was also involved:
Initially contract an MoD construction to a naïve but capable company, selling them hopes of lucrative future contracts for successful completion. Ivanov would give an advance payment of 20%. The construction contractor is excited to have the Ministry of Defence as the client, and aggressively works to get the construction completed properly. But at 90% completion, Ivanov at MoD would pull the rug from under the contractor and only 'accept' the work completed on the advance that was paid, which was just 20%. The mark (contractor) is then discarded, or if he doesn't 'get it,' and tries to fight the injustice, he is either killed or thrown in jail on fabricated charges, where the prosecutors / investigators are conveniently part of the Ivanov/Shoigu mafia. So now, Ivanov has a nearly complete construction (90%), but according to accounting, it is only 20% complete. Ivanov then contracts his own construction partners, one of whom has now been arrested - Alexander Fomin of OlympCityStroy. In just 2023, Alexander Fomin's company OlympCityStroy had a revenue of over ₽65 billion ($706 million), most of which came from Defence Ministry contracts handed out by Ivanov. Fomin has been flipped and is now cooperating with the investigation to bury Ivanov. Example - a 90% complete $5M project fraudulently listed as just 20% complete on the MoD books is handed off to Fomin by Ivanov, with double the budget for the remaining 80% that needs completion - $8M. Fomin completes the remaining 10% and they steal the rest - $7M. The current investigation against Ivanov is likely to lead to mass arrests and charges & won't be about just for corruption but for racketeering by an organized criminal organization. Over 1,000 contracts were part of this Incomplete Projects scheme with countless victims. Now this gets crazy: Timur Ivanov was interrogated as part of an investigation into this scheme in the summer of 2021 when several of the 'marks' (contractors who got scammed) were thrown in jail by Ivanov but became cooperating victims/witnesses for investigators against Ivanov. This 2021 investigation became a huge problem for not just Ivanov but also Defence Minister Shoigu himself, who has been profiting off of this racketeering scheme, as well as for Tsalikov, another Deputy Defence Minister. They desperately needed to stop this investigation.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...57222029803546

Besonders pikant aber:

According to Osechkin's sources, in 2021 Shoigu made Military Intelligence under the command of the General Staff fabricate countless reports for Putin which painted an apocalyptic picture: in the coming months NATO ground forces would enter Ukraine to de-occupy Donbas. The false reports to Putin about NATO to instigate a crisis and a war to halt the investigation into their corruption worked, facilitating the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Shoigu and his mafia urgently needed this war. Shoigu knows Putin well, and he was convinced Putin would not change horses midstream if they started a war against Ukraine. Not only did Shoigu manage to get rid of the 2021 corruption investigation against them by manipulating Putin, his MoD budget skyrocketed with the war.

@C.Adams, da bin ich besonders über deine Meinung gespannt, auch wenn ne wirkliche EInschätzung praktisch unmöglich ist.