Forecasts and Transmissibility Estimates
Based on our best estimates of transmissibility, the COVID-19 epidemic is:
stabilising1 in 14 countries
(Argentina, Austria, Dominican Republic, Greece, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway, Panama, South Korea);
growing slowly2 in 2 countries (1<Rt<2)
(Netherlands, Spain);
growing rapidly3 in 26 countries (Rt>2)
(Algeria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America).
Based on the central trends in the forecasts, the total number of reported deaths in the coming week is expected to be:
relatively small in 14 countries (<100 deaths)
(Argentina, China, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Greece, Iraq, Japan, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway, Panama, South Korea);
relatively large in 15 countries (100 to 1000 deaths)
(Austria, Canada, Denmark, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden),
large in 8 countries (1,000 to 5,000 deaths)
(Algeria, Belgium, Brazil, Germany, Iran, Netherlands, Switzerland, Turkey),
very large in 5 countries (> 5,000 deaths)
(France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America).